Prostate cancer, from screening to recurrence
17:38The highest-yield topic in the exam, at the pace the rest of the series runs.
- What the screening trials really show, and why they only look contradictory
- The MRI-first pathway and biparametric scanning
- Why the biopsy left the operating theatre
5 more
- The T2 change people miss
- Who actually needs staging imaging
- Why three surgery-versus-monitoring trials disagree
- When a benign biopsy is not reassuring
- The two recurrence definitions you must not mix up
Read along · full transcript
Libby Welcome back to FRCS Urology in Fifteen. Today, prostate cancer. Ryan, this is the biggest topic in the syllabus. What are we actually doing with the fifteen minutes?
Ryan Nine things, and no grade tables read aloud. Screening, and what the trials really show. The diagnostic pathway, which has changed more than people realise, and why the biopsy has moved out of theatre. How risk is grouped now, including a T2 change that catches people out. Who actually needs staging imaging, because that is where men get over-investigated. Why three big trials of surgery against conservative management seem to disagree and do not. When a non-cancer biopsy means you must go back. What has moved in systemic therapy. And what counts as recurrence afterwards, because the two definitions are not interchangeable.
Libby Screening first. If an examiner asks should we screen for prostate cancer, where do I start?
Ryan Start with Wilson and Jungner, the World Health Organisation criteria from nineteen sixty-eight, then show where PSA fails against them. And be specific about which criteria fail, because that is what separates a good answer. The condition is important, it has a long latent phase, and treatment exists, so those pass comfortably. What fails is the test itself: there is no cut-off that is both sensitive and specific. And what also fails is that there is no agreed policy on whom to treat once you have found disease, because a great deal of what you find would never have harmed the man.
Libby And the trials? I can never keep them straight.
Ryan Three, and each contributes something different. ERSPC gave a relative reduction in prostate cancer mortality of about twenty-one per cent at thirteen years, at the cost of substantial overdiagnosis and with no effect on all-cause mortality. PLCO found no mortality difference at all, but its control arm was heavily contaminated by opportunistic testing, so it is really a trial of organised against opportunistic screening rather than screening against none. Say that out loud, because examiners are waiting for it. And CAP, the UK trial, gave a single PSA invitation and found more cancers detected but no mortality benefit at fifteen years.
Libby So what is the synthesis? Because that sounds like three different answers.
Ryan It is one answer. Screening reliably increases detection, moves prostate cancer mortality a little at best, and does not move all-cause mortality. That is precisely why the UK screens nobody as a population and targets instead. The positive counterpoint worth having is IMPACT, which screened men carrying pathogenic BRCA variants and found clinically significant cancer in three point one per cent of BRCA2 carriers against one point three per cent of controls. Genotype, not population, is where targeted screening earns its place.
Libby Diagnostics next. What has actually changed in how we work a man up?
Ryan Two things, and the first is that a man fit for radical treatment now goes straight to multiparametric MRI. No prior outpatient assessment, and no digital rectal examination first, because the DRE adds nothing the MRI will not tell you. That feels wrong to anybody trained to examine before imaging, but the pathway is built that way deliberately.
Libby And the second?
Ryan PSA density now drives the biopsy decision rather than PSA alone, and it is the interaction with the MRI score that matters. For context on what the MRI is buying you: a PI-RADS three lesion yields clinically significant cancer in about twelve to sixteen per cent, a four in about thirty-three, and a five in sixty-six to eighty. PROMIS gave the MRI a negative predictive value of about eighty-nine per cent, so it is genuinely good at telling you who does not need a biopsy, which is the whole reason the pathway was rebuilt around it. And the scan itself is getting simpler: PRIME, in twenty twenty-five, found biparametric MRI, meaning no contrast, non-inferior to full multiparametric within the same patients, twenty-nine point two per cent against twenty-nine point six. The catch is that it depended on strict central quality control, so it is not a licence to drop the contrast everywhere.
Libby You said biopsy has moved out of theatre. That is a big operational change.
Ryan Local anaesthetic transperineal biopsy is the default now, in an outpatient setting, and it is standard care in most English units: a procedure room rather than an operating theatre, and in many centres delivered by specialist nurses. The randomised evidence is what makes it defensible rather than fashionable. TRANSLATE, a UK trial of eleven hundred and twenty-six men, compared it against transrectal biopsy and found Grade Group two or above in sixty per cent against fifty-four, with hospital admission for infection under one per cent against two. Better detection and fewer septic admissions.
Libby Risk stratification. In the UK we use Cambridge Prognostic Groups, but the EAU has its own. How do I hold both?
Ryan Map them onto each other rather than learning two lists. The Cambridge groups run one to five, and they line up roughly with the older language: group one is low risk, group two favourable intermediate, group three unfavourable intermediate, group four high risk, group five very high risk. The EAU low, favourable intermediate and unfavourable intermediate map onto Cambridge one, two and three. Learn the mapping and you can answer in whichever language the examiner uses.
Libby And you said there is a change that catches people out.
Ryan There is, and it is recent. In the twenty twenty-six EAU risk groups, the cT2 substage no longer defines the risk group. T2a, T2b and T2c used to pull a man between categories; now they do not, and the old D'Amico-style any-one-factor table has gone with them. So if you were taught to upgrade someone on the strength of a T2b, that is no longer how it works. One related trap while we are here: defining favourable against unfavourable intermediate by the percentage of positive cores is the NCCN scheme, not the EAU one. Mixing those up is an easy mark to lose.
Libby Once I have the risk group, what am I scanning? I was taught a bone scan for anyone who looked worrying.
Ryan That instinct is what the current position is designed to stop. Staging is driven by risk group now. Low and favourable intermediate disease gets no additional imaging at all, nothing. Unfavourable intermediate and above gets PSMA PET-CT where it is available, and CT with a bone scan where it is not, because PSMA PET is the more sensitive of the two for staging higher-risk disease.
Libby Nothing at all feels bold. What makes it safe?
Ryan The pre-test probability, and the numbers are worth carrying because they make the argument for you. Bone metastasis risk by PSA: under ten, about half a per cent. Ten to twenty, under two per cent. Twenty to fifty, about sixteen per cent. Grade tells the same story: bone scan positivity is around five per cent at Gleason seven or below, against about twenty-eight per cent at Gleason eight. So at the bottom of the range you are scanning two hundred men to find one, and every one of those scans can throw up something equivocal that then needs chasing. The scan is not neutral just because it is non-invasive.
Libby And the nodes, at the time of surgery? There used to be a nomogram cut-off.
Ryan There did, and it has gone, which is the part people have not caught up with. The EAU twenty twenty-six position gives no nomogram risk threshold at all: the old five to seven per cent cut-off for deciding to do a lymph node dissection is simply not there any more. What survives is that if you do perform one, make it extended, that is a strong recommendation. And the counselling is honest: an extended dissection improves staging but has no proven oncological benefit, and it adds real morbidity in lymphocele and lymphoedema. One more, because it is a classic viva question: do not use a nodal frozen section to decide whether to abandon the prostatectomy.
Libby Treatment outcomes. Surgery against conservative management has been studied repeatedly and the trials seem to contradict each other.
Ryan They look like they do, and the resolution is the single most useful thing in this topic. Know them as a set, because their disagreement is an era effect, not a contradiction. SPCG-4 was largely pre-PSA, with palpable disease, and there surgery reduced both prostate cancer mortality and overall mortality. PIVOT randomised men in the PSA era to prostatectomy or observation and found no significant all-cause mortality benefit overall, with surgery helping only where the PSA exceeded ten. ProtecT then randomised screen-detected disease three ways, to monitoring, surgery or radiotherapy, and found no difference in prostate cancer mortality at fifteen years.
Libby So the more recent the trial, the less surgery helps?
Ryan Not quite, and the distinction matters. It is not that surgery stopped working. It is that as the disease being detected got earlier and more indolent, the benefit of treating it immediately shrank towards nothing. Same operation, different disease. That is the line to give, and it explains why active surveillance is the default for Cambridge group one, where ten year prostate cancer mortality is only about two to three per cent.
Libby Re-biopsy. If the histology comes back without cancer, when do I still need to go again?
Ryan This has reversed, and the old answer is now the wrong one. Atypical small acinar proliferation and high-grade PIN do NOT need routine re-biopsy. In contemporary series clinically significant cancer on follow-up is only six to eight per cent, no different from after a benign biopsy, so you manage it like a negative biopsy. The thirty to forty per cent figure people still quote is pre-MRI data, and even there significant cancer was only twelve per cent. What you do say is the NICE line: tell the man his risk is slightly higher. The one finding you must not ignore is intraductal carcinoma without invasive cancer, which marks concurrent high-grade disease, so that is re-biopsy or definitive management.
Libby Anything in between?
Ryan Two things. The MRI, not the benign histology, is what drives a repeat: a negative biopsy with a Likert three or more goes to the MDT with a view to re-biopsy. And then the list you can genuinely ignore, which is worth knowing because ignoring them confidently is what stops unnecessary procedures: high-grade PIN whether single-core or multifocal, atypical adenomatous hyperplasia, proliferative inflammatory atrophy, basal cell hyperplasia, sclerosing adenosis, nephrogenic adenoma, and granulomatous prostatitis after BCG. Low-grade PIN should not even be reported.
Libby What if the MRI was suspicious but the biopsy is negative?
Ryan Then it goes to joint urology and radiology review, and that is the answer they want rather than simply repeating the biopsy reflexively. A Likert or PI-RADS four or five with no atrophy or inflammation on the biopsy suggests you missed the target, so consider immediate re-biopsy, or repeat the MRI at six to twelve months once any inflammation has settled. The review can also regrade the MRI suspicion downwards, which is a legitimate outcome. If the MRI was only equivocal, discharge to the GP with a re-referral PSA threshold set by a senior clinician.
Libby Last one. New agents. What has actually changed recently?
Ryan Two movements. First, PARP inhibitors have moved earlier in the disease, into hormone-sensitive metastatic disease. AMPLITUDE, in twenty twenty-five, showed niraparib with abiraterone and androgen deprivation improves radiographic progression-free survival in men with homologous recombination repair mutations, with a hazard ratio around nought point five two in the BRCA subgroup, and that combination is now approved for BRCA-mutated hormone-sensitive metastatic disease. Previously PARP inhibition was castration-resistant territory only.
Libby And the second?
Ryan Lutetium-177 PSMA, and this one carries a UK trap worth having ready. VISION established it after an androgen receptor pathway inhibitor and a taxane. PSMAfore then showed a progression-free survival benefit in taxane-naive castration-resistant disease, eleven point six months against five point six, but with no significant overall survival benefit, partly because sixty per cent crossed over. The EAU position is to offer it to pretreated patients not fit for docetaxel, and weakly at that. The trap is that NICE does not recommend it on the NHS on cost-effectiveness grounds, so the right answer to what would you give this man in the UK is different from what the trial supports. That gap between trial evidence and NHS availability is a favourite.
Libby We have not touched recurrence. If the PSA starts climbing after treatment, when is that actually a recurrence?
Ryan It depends entirely on which treatment, and mixing the two definitions up is a classic error because they are nothing alike. After a prostatectomy, biochemical recurrence is a PSA of nought point two or more, rising and confirmed. The gland is out, so any measurable PSA means prostate tissue somewhere. After radiotherapy the gland is still in there and still making PSA, so you cannot use a low absolute number. There you use the Phoenix definition, which is the nadir plus two.
Libby Why plus two? That seems arbitrary.
Ryan It is there to stop you calling failure on a bounce. A benign PSA bounce after brachytherapy happens in up to thirty per cent of men, typically somewhere between twelve and twenty-four months, and if you used a tight threshold you would be sending a third of your patients for salvage treatment they do not need. So the plus two is deliberately generous. And when you do have genuine recurrence, restage with PSMA PET, which is far more sensitive than CT and a bone scan at low PSA values.
Libby And what about radiotherapy straight after surgery, for adverse pathology? I was taught adjuvant.
Ryan That has reversed, and it is one of the cleaner practice changes to be able to state. Adjuvant radiotherapy is no longer routine for pT3 disease or positive margins. Early salvage radiotherapy on a rising PSA is preferred for most men, on the strength of RADICALS-RT, RAVES and GETUG, because it gives the same cancer control while sparing radiotherapy entirely to the substantial group who were never going to recur. There is one exception worth naming: node-negative disease with grade group four or five and pT3, with or without a positive margin, where adjuvant radiotherapy is still offered.
Libby Active surveillance. If the ProtecT answer is that monitoring is reasonable, what does monitoring actually consist of?
Ryan PSA at least every six months, digital rectal examination at least yearly, MRI before the confirmatory biopsy, and repeat biopsy every two to three years for up to about ten. And one exclusion worth stating: cribriform or intraductal histology takes a man out of surveillance, because that pattern behaves worse than its grade suggests.
Libby Is it the same protocol for everybody on surveillance?
Ryan No, and that is the modern point. STRATCANS is the stratified model, where the intensity of follow-up is set by the risk tier at first biopsy and the baseline MRI, so a man at the bottom is monitored far more lightly than one at the top of the surveillance range. Surveillance is not one protocol applied uniformly, and saying so shows you understand it is a risk-management strategy rather than a waiting room.
Libby And what actually triggers treatment? That is the bit I would get wrong.
Ryan Biopsy progression. Grade reclassification or volume progression on histology, or patient choice. Not a rising PSA on its own, not a change on MRI on its own, and not a change on examination on its own. Those things trigger more investigation rather than treatment: MRI progression or a PSA doubling time under three years means repeat the MRI and re-biopsy, and then the biopsy decides. There is even a weak recommendation that a low-risk man with a stable MRI and a PSA density under nought point one five may skip the repeat biopsy altogether. Treating on a PSA rise alone is exactly the reflex active surveillance exists to prevent.
Libby Numbers from today.
Ryan Seven. ERSPC, a twenty-one per cent relative reduction in prostate cancer mortality at thirteen years, with no all-cause benefit. PROMIS, MRI negative predictive value about eighty-nine per cent. ASAP and high-grade PIN, six to eight per cent significant cancer on follow-up, so no routine re-biopsy. Cambridge group one, ten-year prostate cancer mortality two to three per cent. Bone metastasis risk by PSA, about half a per cent under ten, rising to about sixteen per cent between twenty and fifty. And recurrence: nought point two after surgery, nadir plus two after radiotherapy.
Libby And the catch to walk out with: the cT2 substage no longer changes the EAU risk group, so stop upgrading men on the strength of a T2b.